Denver Post Broncos writer Parker Gabriel publishes his Broncos Mailbag every week during the season and occasionally in the offseason. Access the form to ask a question here.
Hi Parker, what do you anticipate the running back situation will be like next year? It seems like Javonte Williams and Jaleel McLaughlin will be heavily involved. And Samaje Perine had some good moments last season. How will Audric Estime be integrated into this system?
— Mike, Denver
Hi Mike, thanks for reaching out and starting us off this week. Your question about one of the most intriguing position groups on the Broncos is quite thought-provoking.
This is the time of year when I often emphasize this point, and I'll do it again for this week’s mailbag: It’s early. Very early.
Alright, with that in mind, the important thing to note about Estime is that he was drafted in a position where the default assumption is that he will play, possibly quite a lot. The exact role is yet to be determined, but you don’t draft running backs in the middle rounds unless you expect them to make an impact. The 6-foot-1, 225-pounder from Notre Dame only played three years of college football and has just 373 college carries to his name. He scored 30 touchdowns in 25 games over the past two years. The main question at this stage is probably about his ability to catch the ball after only making 26 receptions in the same timeframe.
What’s intriguing is that Denver still has all three of its running backs from last year’s rotation under contract for 2024.
Williams is the uncertain factor for the following reason: It’s challenging for an outsider to assess his 2023 season. When you initially look at the statistics, they’re not impressive. Despite running behind a blocking unit that ranked third in run block win rate, according to one of ESPN’s advanced metrics, he averaged 3.6 yards per carry. According to PFF, he evaded 63 tackles as a rookie on 203 carries and only 34 tackles on 217 carries last year. His longest run of the year was 21 yards, he did less damage after being tackled, and he averaged 2.6 yards per carry over the final four games of the season.
However, he played all 16 games despite being less than a year removed from a serious knee injury involving multiple ligaments, an injury that has sidelined similar players for 12 months or longer. Coaches and teammates were impressed by his quick recovery and his ability to stay on the field. If he had played only half the season, he would have been excused considering the injury. Therefore, it doesn’t seem fair to criticize him for returning early and participating in every game except one.
The NFL, as always, isn’t fair, perhaps especially for running backs. Williams’ performance in 2024 will be quite intriguing. Has he fully recovered to his pre-injury level? Or has the injury affected his abilities?
Perine made 50 receptions last year, and McLaughlin is an agile change-of-pace option but probably not a full-time choice at the moment. They have fairly defined roles. In particular, Perine will need to demonstrate that he offers something to the offense that Estime doesn’t.
Most teams don’t retain four running backs on the 53-man roster. The Broncos will also closely evaluate undrafted rookie Blake Watson from Memphis and practice squad returnee Tyler Badie this summer. The competition has only just begun.
Do you believe we will witness a significant contribution from Troy Franklin in this season? After two years of being Nix's top target at Oregon, he should be a reliable option for our new QB.
— Ryan C., Denver
Yes, Ryan, that's a good question. Ask me again in mid-August. Just joking, sort of.
If you were predicting the top three right now based on the roster and not on voluntary workout attendance, you'd probably select Courtland Sutton, Josh Reynolds, and Marvin Mims Jr. After them, there's Tim Patrick returning from consecutive injury-hit seasons, Brandon Johnson, Lil'Jordan Humphrey, Jalen Virgil recovering from a torn ACL last summer, and some veteran practice squad players like Phillip Dorsett and David Sills.
That's a lot of competition for Franklin and the seventh-round pick Devaughn Vele, but the group doesn't have an overwhelming recent production either.
Franklin has a blend of qualities not currently present in the group. Denver's players have size and speed with Mims and Johnson. Franklin, the 102nd overall pick in the draft, has both. Now, he needs to learn the offense, catch the ball consistently, and demonstrate trustworthiness not only to the familiar quarterback Bo Nix but also to the coaching staff and other quarterbacks.
If he accomplishes all that, he will likely have a great opportunity to play extensively. However, even if the group remains as it is, that may not initially result in a substantial number of targets. The Broncos have other options, particularly at the top. Nevertheless, at 6-foot-3 with his speed, he can intimidate defenses.
Right now, it's reasonable to assume that the quarterback position belongs to Bo Nix, don't you think? I can't imagine us starting the new year with Jarrett Stidham as the quarterback.
— Mark, Arvada
How secure do you mean, Mark? It's not guaranteed. Nix will receive a thorough evaluation this offseason. He will have every opportunity to prove that he can be the main guy from the outset. In last week’s mailbag, we discussed several reasons why he has a chance to do so and why it would make sense to go with him if he demonstrates that he is in the same league as Jarrett Stidham and Zach Wilson.
However, he actually has to deliver. He will have the opportunity to start proving himself at this weekend’s rookie minicamp. Let us see if we can avoid overreacting to a couple of days in May. The forecast indicates it's not very likely.
Of the following, what's your favorite and worst part of the offseason: writing this mailbag, reporting on free agency movements, Denver roster cuts, profiling draft choices, or speculating on mock drafts? Or maybe something else?
— Ed Helinski, Auburn, N.Y.
Hey Ed, interesting question and a difficult one. The absolute best part of the offseason is getting somewhere for a few days without cell signal and completely forgetting about it.
The NFL does an excellent job of staying in conversations throughout the offseason, so there's usually something happening or upcoming. Some parts are more enjoyable than others, of course. You're interested in the big free agent signings and early-round picks, but there are always interesting stories from other players as well. One underrated aspect is getting a glimpse of rookie minicamps, followed by mandatory minicamps, and the early stages of training camp to figure out who has a real chance to make the roster. Then there's the excitement of the NFL combine, where essentially the entire league is present for about a week. It's a great time for reporting, networking, catching up with friends and colleagues, and, oh yes, learning about the draft class too.
And, naturally, The Mailbag is excellent! We receive very good inquiries about the Broncos every week regardless of how distant a real game is. Pretty neat. Please continue sending them.
