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NFL teams often struggle to choose the right QBs in the draft. But how often do they fail? And for what reasons?

NFL teams are using premium draft picks on quarterbacks at an increasingly high rate. The draft this weekend is slated to be the eighth in the past nine years with at least three QBs taken in the first round. That

By DAVE CAMPBELL and JOSH DUBOW (AP Pro Football Writers)

The Minnesota Vikings are in need of a quarterback in this draft. It's clear that they need one. The difficult part is selecting the right one — and figuring out how much it's worth to them to acquire him.

They have a chance to secure their future with the 11th and 23rd overall picks in this top-quality class, which includes Caleb Williams, Jayden Daniels, Drake Maye, and J.J. McCarthy. They could combine these picks to move into the top five.

However, they understand that even with a rookie-friendly coach in Kevin O’Connell and a top wide receiver in Justin Jefferson, there are no guarantees in the challenging process of finding a franchise player in the draft. the NFL.

“I believe our chances will be better than the margins. How good are those chances? Obviously, it’s still quite risky,” third-year general manager Kwesi Adofo-Mensah said. “But just because something’s risky doesn’t mean you’re scared of it.”

Teams are increasingly using high draft picks on quarterbacks. This draft is set to be the eighth in the last nine years with at least three QBs taken in the first round, matching the number of times that happened in the first 38 years of the common draft era.

Quarterbacks could be selected with the top three picks for the fourth time ever, as all desperately need a passer who can change the fortunes of a franchise. This draft could potentially break a record with four quarterbacks going in the top nine picks. The over-under for total QBs taken in the first round is set at 4 1/2 by Chicago, Washington and New England BetMGM Sportsbook , and Michael Penix and Bo Nix are also being considered for other QB-needy teams outside the top 10, such as Denver and Las Vegas. But for every Patrick Mahomes, there is a Josh Rosen.

“I think it would be challenging to look at the results and say we’ve made progress, as unfortunate as that is,” NFL Network draft analyst Daniel Jeremiah said. “The more you look at it, I think there’s more attention being paid now to perhaps the environment rather than the actual quarterback, and knowing how to set the stage for when you do select the quarterback so that he can be successful.”

Regardless of whether the player is a traditional pocket passer, good at improvising, or somewhere in between.

“Different styles, that’s not something to get too focused on. To me, the main focus is, ‘Do we have the right play caller, the right offensive line to protect him, and do we have some guys he can pass the ball to?’” Jeremiah said. “I think that's what will determine their success.

The Vikings are counting on that.

“When we discuss these players, it’s not just about how good they are. It's also about how to bring out their best if they join the Minnesota Vikings. We make plans before they even arrive at the facility,” Adofo-Mensah said. “I believe our chances will be better than the margins.”

Nevertheless, the success rate across the league remains uncertain.

From the beginning of the rookie wage scale era in the 2011 draft through 2022, 38 quarterbacks have been drafted in the first round. These QBs have essentially performed slightly below the league average early in their careers, with a passer rating 1.5 points lower than the league average over their first three seasons.

Twenty of those quarterbacks were allowed to leave their original teams without even reaching the relatively low standard of receiving a second contract, with 2021 second overall pick Zach Wilson the latest after being

traded by the New York Jets to Denver Only five achieved first- or second-team All-Pro honors. Only eight have led their teams to multiple playoff wins so far. on Monday.

“I think it’s really difficult to assess quarterbacks, but you just try to improve and try to understand what you did the last time that was really good and what you did last time that was really bad,” said Commanders first-year general manager Adam Peters, who is aiming for better success picking a QB at No. 2 this year than he had as assistant GM in San Francisco when the 49ers took Trey Lance third overall in 2021. “It’s constantly evolving, and I don’t think anybody has the magic solution to understand that one. If they do let me know, I’ll hire them.”

The majority of those failures provided two seasons or fewer as regular starters as teams quickly moved on from disappointments like Jake Locker, Johnny Manziel, Paxton Lynch and of course Rosen, who spent time with a whopping seven teams over five years after Arizona traded up five spots to take him 10th overall in 2018.

Several teams were quickly forced back on the quarterback draft carousel. There were eight instances of a team using another first-round pick on a quarterback in the following four drafts, including the Cardinals, who traded away Rosen after one year and took Kyler Murray first overall in 2019.

Chicago and New England could add to that count at the top of this draft with the Bears widely expected to draft Williams at No. 1 overall after trading away 2021 first-round QB Justin Fields and New England possibly using the third pick on a replacement for 2021 first-rounder Mac Jones.

Obtaining a quarterback deserving of a second contract is no guarantee of success with many of those being no better than a mid-level performer like Daniel Jones, Ryan Tannehill, Blake Bortles and Carson Wentz.

“I think it’s probably the most, probably the toughest position of all professional sports to play,” said Packers general manager Brian Gutekunst, whose franchise has enjoyed a more than 30-year uninterrupted run of top-flight QB play from Brett Favre to Aaron Rodgers to Jordan Love. “You never really know until you have that time to try to develop a guy, whether he’s going to be able to do it at a high level or not. So, it’s just a tough league to excel at that position, for sure.”

But the success stories are the reason why teams keep coming back with the hope of getting their franchise-lifting quarterback, like Mahomes, Josh Allen, Lamar Jackson or Joe Burrow.

Five of the seven teams with the best odds to win the Super Bowl,

according to BetMGM Sportsbook , are led by a quarterback they selected in the first round. Nine of the last 10 AP NFL MVPs are first-round quarterbacks with their original teams.“I think there’s risk obviously,” Broncos coach Sean Payton said. “There’s no certainty or else we’d be fantastic with the draft.”


AP NFL: NFL teams are spending a lot of top draft picks on quarterbacks more often now. In the upcoming draft, it's expected that at least three QBs will be chosen in the first round, which has happened eight times in the last nine years. This equals the total from the first 38 years of the common draft era. However, it's still a 50/50 chance to find a good starting quarterback. Between 2011 and 2022, half of the first-round QBs didn't stay with their original teams long enough to get a second contract.

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