Despite the focus on their weaknesses at the beginning of spring training, the Pittsburgh Pirates want to prove something to their doubters: They will surprise people this season.
After two consecutive 100-loss seasons, the Pirates surprised the baseball world by starting 2023 with the best record in the National League through April. They ended with a 76-86 record, which was a 14-win improvement. This improvement showed the Pirates that they can compete with playoff-caliber teams. They were motivated by seeing other teams celebrate after making the playoffs.
When the Pirates begin the season on Thursday afternoon in Miami, they aim to become playoff contenders. The odds are against them. While there is no clear favorite in the NL Central, the Pirates have never won the division and haven’t clinched a wild card since 2015, when Andrew McCutchen was their key player.
There is a belief within the team that the Pirates will do better than expected. The predictions have them finishing in fourth or last place: ESPN gave them 8% odds to make the playoffs, winning 73 games. The Athletic predicts 74 wins, FanGraphs has them at 77, and Sporting News says 79.
Gold Glove third baseman Ke’Bryan Hayes mentioned the 20-9 start from last year, which was followed by a tough month in May. He emphasized the importance of consistency and gaining experience to avoid such fluctuations.
Hayes also talked about the need to figure out how to bounce back when facing challenges, just like the older players did last year. He stressed the importance of everyone doing their part and striving to be the best every day, despite the ups and downs of a long season.
1. Leading off: The best version of the Pirates starts with Oneil Cruz filling big gaps by batting leadoff and playing shortstop.
Cruz proved he hasn't lost his form, hitting a team-high seven home runs – all with exit velocities of 104.9 mph or more – and 14 RBIs this spring. He also seems to still have his speed.
“He can hit a home run, but if he can draw a walk, it won’t take much to score him. This will make our offense more dynamic,” said Pirates outfielder Bryan Reynolds.
It's often overlooked that the Pirates made a 14-win improvement even though Cruz only played nine games before fracturing his left ankle. If the 6-foot-7, 230-pound Cruz lives up to the hype, the Pirates have a potential power-hitting superstar. If not, they have an error-prone shortstop with a high strikeout rate.
He's probably somewhere in the middle.
2. Loading up: The lineup is improved, with Cruz expected to be followed by Reynolds and Hayes. Jack Suwinski, who hit 26 homers last year, is likely to bat cleanup against right-handers with McCutchen or Henry Davis available against lefties. Rowdy Tellez has power from the left side, Jared Triolo gets on base and Michael A. Taylor has power and speed but has a high strikeout rate.
Compare that to the 2023 Opening Day lineup: Cruz, Reynolds, McCutchen, Carlos Santana, Canaan Smith-Njigba, Hayes, Suwinski, Ji Hwan Bae and Austin Hedges. Just two years ago, the Opening Day lineup looked like this: Daniel Vogelbach, Reynolds, Hayes, Yoshi Tsutsugo, Kevin Newman, Cole Tucker, Ben Gamel, Roberto Perez and Chad Kuhl.
The Pirates have five players with 20-homer seasons in Reynolds, Suwinski, McCutchen, Tellez and Taylor, while Cruz, Davis and Hayes have shown power potential.
“I think it’s pretty exciting, looking around at the hitters we have and the potential of having a really dangerous lineup,” Suwinski said. “We get to see the guys every day working for it and hungry for it, so we get the inside look at everyone getting after it and all the possibilities these guys are capable of.”
3. Rotating: The starting pitching remains a major uncertainty. The Pirates are investing $77 million through 2028 in Mitch Keller to be the staff ace, counting on bounce-back seasons by left-handers Martin Perez and Marco Gonzales and hoping rookie right-hander Jared Jones continues to command his fastball for strikes.
The inclusion of lefty Bailey Falter in the rotation is puzzling, considering his struggles this spring. But a deeper bullpen could allow for some innovation, if the Pirates want to use an opener for Falter or have him pitch in conjunction with righties Roansy Contreras or Luis Ortiz or lefty Josh Fleming.
It won’t be long before the Pirates bring up Paul Skenes, the 2023 No. 1 overall pick, and he is expected to be in the starting rotation for years to come.
They also have top-100 prospects in righty Bubba Chandler and lefty Anthony Solometo, and Braxton Ashcraft was impressive in spring training. Plus, the Pirates signed Eric Lauer to a minor league deal, giving them another experienced lefty, and JT Brubaker and Mike Burrows should return after the All-Star break.
By July, the starting pitching could look very different.
4. Concerns: Despite the potential positives, the Pirates have very few certainties.
Davis is unproven behind the plate. Tellez has a history of struggling against breaking pitches. Triolo is still new to playing with Cruz and turning double plays at second base. Cruz remains inconsistent on throws. Hayes has had trouble staying healthy. Suwinski has struggled against lefties. Taylor has a career a 30% strikeout rate. Reynolds is playing a different outfield position for the third consecutive year.
Additionally, Ji Hwan Bae, a second baseman/outfielder, and catcher Yasmani Grandal are expected to begin the season on the 10-day injured list. Right-handed relievers Colin Holderman and Carmen Mlodzinski are expected to start on the 15-day IL. Dauri Moreta will be sidelined for the season due to elbow surgery, joining Johan Oviedo and Endy Rodriguez.
The Pirates have more depth but still have little room for mistakes.
5. Predictions: It is predicted that Hayes will secure his first All-Star selection and win his first Platinum Glove. Cruz will be the first Pirates shortstop to hit over 20 homers in a season and the first middle infielder to hit 30. Andrew McCutchen will hit his 300th homer at PNC Park in the home opener. Aroldis Chapman will be the first Pirates pitcher to reach triple digits on the radar gun, followed by Jared Jones as the second. Roansy Contreras will rejoin the starting rotation, while Luis Ortiz will transition into a high-leverage role. Skenes is anticipated to make his major league debut by Memorial Day. Termarr Johnson is expected to make his debut in September.
The Pirates are projected to finish with an 82-80 record.
