As the oldest continuously operating constitutional republic, very few things are new in American politics. Even the upcoming rematch between Donald Trump and Joe Biden, while a first in recent memory, has occurred several times in our country's long history.
There have been six presidential election rematches in American history, dating back to John Adams and Thomas Jefferson's showdown in 1800. In four of those rematches, the loser of the first contest won.
But one particular election stands out as a model for Trump vs. Biden round two: the 1892 election between Grover Cleveland and Benjamin Harrison. To this day, it is the only election rematch between two men who had both served a term as president.
Eight years prior, in 1884, Grover Cleveland became an improbable presidential election winner. While Cleveland was a Democrat, he shared many similarities with President Trump. During that time, the Republican Party was the party of the American establishment, while Democrats were the insurgent outsiders, still recovering from the aftermath of the Civil War. Like Trump, Cleveland was an unexpected national political figure. In the fall of 1881, Cleveland was simply a prominent lawyer in Buffalo, New York. But after rapid terms as mayor of Buffalo and governor of New York, just three years later, Cleveland was elected president.
Similar to Trump, Cleveland survived a sex scandal during an election year, in his case involving an out-of-wedlock child rather than the Access Hollywood tape (times were simpler then). Similar to Trump, he rose to prominence because voters were frustrated with corruption in both major parties. Similar to Trump, his foreign policy emphasized noninterventionism, while his domestic policy focused on a limited federal government and lower taxes (yes, Democrats were the low-tax party at one time).
And just like Trump, Cleveland narrowly lost an election in 1888, to Republican Benjamin Harrison, after the urban Tammany Hall political machine used its influence against Cleveland in New York City, costing him the state’s election-deciding electoral votes.
Even as Cleveland left the White House the following spring, his wife supposedly told a staffer to take good care of all the building's furniture, 'for I want to find everything just as it is now, when we come back four years from now.'
It was a bold claim, but it came true. Just like Trump, there was little doubt that Cleveland would be his party's champion again four years later. He easily won on the first ballot at the 1892 nominating convention. Just like Biden, meanwhile, President Harrison was dealing with surging prices and a divided party. Like in 2024, inflation was one of the key issues in 1892, as Harrison supported an inflationary monetary policy that depleted the nation’s gold reserves, while Cleveland was the candidate of low inflation, the gold standard, and monetary discipline (it was a different Democratic Party then). very The 1892 election, just like this year’s, featured a significant populist third-party candidate, James Weaver of the literal Populist Party, who managed to win 9 percent of the popular vote and the electoral votes of five states. And just like this year with Cornel West, there was
important independent candidate named John Bidwell from the Prohibition Party (yes, a party with a single goal to “ban alcohol”). another Thanks to all these factors, Grover Cleveland’s third election was much better than his first two. In 1884, Cleveland had won 20 states with 219 electoral votes. Eight years later, he won 23 states worth more than 277.
I think all the elements are ready for Donald Trump to achieve the same as Cleveland. The determination is there, and the weak incumbent is there. But the most important fact is this: In a rematch like this, voters don’t have to wonder if the challenger might do better as president. Instead, they can just make a direct comparison. So how does that look?
A survey done earlier this month
by The New York Times and Siena College presents it all: 42 percent of people think Trump’s presidency was mostly good for America, compared to a terrible 25 percent for Biden. On the flip side, while only 33 percent believe Trump’s presidency was mostly a bad time, for Biden the figure is a disturbing 46 percent. Wall Street Journal poll
In another from March 17-24, only 38 percent of voters approve of Joe Biden’s performance as president, but 51 percent approve of Donald Trump’s performance during his term. This is 2024 summed up — just like it was in 1892. Americans have had three years and change to evaluate Joe Biden in the White House, and their thoughts are clear: Donald Trump did it better.
Republicans must make that the central question every voter is asking themselves come November: Who was better? Who was better at the border? Whose economic policies led to prosperity and a blue-collar boom, and whose led to inflation and oligarchy? Whose foreign policy created peace, and whose created chaos? Whose actions angered the incompetent elites Americans loathe, and whose won their steadfast support?
Because in 2024, unlike any other election in our lifetimes, there is no speculation. Both candidates have a record, and we know which president saw success and which one has only produced one failure, flop, and crisis after another.
So let’s make Joe Biden 2024’s Benjamin Harrison.
Both candidates have a record, and we know which president saw success and which one has only produced one crisis after another.
